Welcome to the ET-EPS pages
ET-EPS is part of the WMO's OPAG on Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (OPAG-DPFS). These pages are intended to be used by the team for developing documents and plans for the ET-EPS.
Terms of Reference for the CBS Expert Team on Ensemble Prediction Systems (ET-EPS):
(a) Provide advice on EPS in relation to probabilistic forecasts in the context of short- and medium-range EPS products, focusing on applications concerned with all aspects of the EPS systems which forecast the weather on a daily basis;
(b) Review progress on EPS and its application to severe weather forecasting including progress on multi-centre ensembles and on regional model based EPS, and prepare ways to make best operational usage of these developments;
(c) Propose guidance for the generation of EPS products (e.g. EPS-grams, presentation of cyclone tracks and strike probabilities, hazard maps, calculation of probability, calibration methodologies, etc.) to ensure compatibility of EPS products supplied to WMO Members by different centres;
(d) Develop education and training material for forecasters including rationale of concepts and strategies of EPS, and on the nature, interpretation and application of EPS products;
(e) In consultation with the Coordination Group on verification, review verification system for EPS products and provide guidance on the interpretation of verification;
(f) Support the further development of the Lead Centre on Verification of EPS by reporting on verification measures and determining the best way of presenting skill of ensemble forecasting systems. Provide relevant software to NMHSs through the Lead Centre Website;
(g) To review the Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485) and propose updates as necessary concerning EPS;
(h) Develop specifications for the introduction of probabilistic information into products from RSMCs with geographical specialization;
(i) Participate in THORPEX Working Groups:
- To ensure that the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System) is suitable for operational implementation and application;
- To review progress on the use of EPS for targeting of observations.